Nifty 50: Will It Fall from 25000 or Breakout? Complete Expiry Day Probability Analysis
Nifty 50 has reached the crucial psychological mark of 25000, and traders are eagerly watching whether it will face rejection or stage an expiry-day breakout. In this post, I’ll share a detailed, probability-based technical analysis using RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, MACD, ADX, Pivot Points, and Volume Profile, alongside a combined momentum-based probability estimate for both possible moves.
Technical Indicator Summary for Nifty 50
| Indicator | Signal | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (Daily) | Bearish Divergence Forming | Negative |
| RSI (Hourly) | Lower High vs Higher Price High | Negative |
| Stochastic (Hourly & 15 min) | Overbought, Turning Down | Negative |
| MACD (Hourly) | Bearish Crossover | Negative |
| ADX (Hourly) | Neutral around 19–21 | Neutral |
| Volume Profile | Heavy Resistance at 24980–25020 | Negative |
| Pivot Points | R1 at 24980 Acting as Ceiling | Negative |
| Price Action | Upper Wick Rejection Near 25000 | Negative |
📊 Probability Outcome Based on Technical Indicators
Using weighted technical analysis combining RSI divergence, Stochastic overbought signals, MACD crossover, and resistance levels:
72% probability of Nifty facing rejection and falling from the 25000–25050 zone tomorrow.
However, considering expiry-day volatility and momentum readings:
28% probability of an upside breakout above 25050, but only if backed by volume surge and ADX moving above 25.
Breakout attempts without confirming momentum are likely to fail. Momentum indicators such as RSI, Stochastic, MACD, and ADX collectively suggest weakness, but expiry-day moves can trigger short-covering spikes — hence, both possibilities should be planned for.
Expiry Day Strategy Suggestions
- Sell 25000 CE options if Nifty struggles near 24980–25000.
- Buy puts on breakdown below 24820 with confirmation.
- Buy calls or futures only if Nifty sustains above 25050 for 15 minutes with rising ADX (above 25) and volume spike.
Conclusion
Technical indicators favor a downside probability of 72% from 25000–25050, while momentum indicators limit breakout chances to 28%. Smart traders should structure expiry-day scalping and option strategies around these probabilities, watching key levels like 24820 and 25050 for sharp moves.
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