Nifty 50 Elliott Wave Analysis with Fibonacci Levels and RSI Insight — Wave 5 Target Projections
Welcome back, traders and investors! Today, I bring you an in-depth Elliott Wave analysis for the Nifty 50 Index, focusing on Wave 5 projections, Fibonacci retracement support levels, RSI momentum outlook, and likely market behaviour across India, the USA, the UK, and Japan markets.
Firstly, I am not saying that this is 100% going to happen. It is a probable scenario. Do not conclude anything for intraday trading or weekly moves. Use this study as direction for the market in the upcoming few weeks. If you see, not only the Indian market but also the global market has shown great resilience from geopolitical or any sort of negative news in the past few months. This used to be the characteristic of 5th wave, so I pick COVID low to consider a point of the new up wave. Hence, here is my conclusion. Please read with patience, as any article on Elliott wave used to be long.
This wave pattern will show an upward move towards 29000 as long as it holds 23500. If buy any chance it breaks 23500 then it will be named as 'truncated wave'. I can say, not impossible.
Updated Elliott Wave Chart Overview
The current Nifty 50 chart reflects a classic Elliott Wave structure where:
- Wave 1 initiated the uptrend from the COVID crash lows.
- Wave 3 extended strongly, with a healthy corrective Wave 4.
- Now, Wave 5 has commenced, aiming for new highs.
- Wave 1: From ~7,500 (March 2020 low) to ~19,414 (Oct 2021 top)
- Wave 2: A corrective ABC from 19,414 to ~15,281
- Wave 3: From 15,281 to ~26,277 (current high)
- 0.618 (minor): 22,097
- 1.0 (equal to Wave 1): 26,311
- 1.272 (common target): 29,311
- 1.618 (extended target): around 31,500 (not shown on your chart but logically above 29,311)
To anticipate support during any pullbacks within Wave 5, we derive Fibonacci levels from the Wave 4 low at 21,786 to the recent high around 26,277. The key levels are:
Perfect — let’s structure a clear, tabulated projection for Wave 5 based on Fibonacci extensions of Wave 1, measured from the end of Wave 4 (which looks around 21,786 on your chart).
Wave 5 Potential Targets (Based on Wave 1 Length = 11,841 points)
Extension Level. Formula. Target. Level (approx)
0.618. 21,786 + (11,841 × 0.618) = 21,786 + 7,318 = 29,104
1.0. 21,786 + (11,841 × 1.0) = 21,786 + 11,841 = 33,627
1.272. 21,786 + (11,841 × 1.272) = 21,786 + 15,066 = 36,852
1.618. 21,786 + (11,841 × 1.618) = 21,786 + 19,163 = 40,949
Interpretation
29,100–30,000 zone: Conservative target around the 0.618 extension, aligns with your chart’s 1.272 Fib projection (~29,311).
33,600: A direct 1.0 move would mean Wave 5 equals Wave 1 in length from Wave 4.
36,800–40,900: Aggressive bull-run levels if Wave 5 extends, which Elliott often allows if Wave 3 was not overextended (which is our case here).
Key Technical Insight
Since Wave 3 capped around 1.0 extension and isn’t the longest possible, Wave 5 has room to be strong — possibly reaching 1.272 or even 1.618 extensions if market momentum holds.
| Fibonacci Level | Nifty Level (Approx) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| 0.236 | 25,225 | Minor support zone |
| 0.382 | 24,474 | Strong intermediate support |
| 0.5 | 24,031 | Psychological support area |
| 0.618 | 23,588 | Key retracement level |
| 0.786 | 22,920 | Last major bull defence |
Note: As long as Nifty trades above 24,474 (38.2%), the bullish Wave 5 structure stays intact.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) Behaviour & Caution Zones
The RSI is currently at 60.14, comfortably within the bullish zone. However, based on Elliott Wave tendencies, RSI behaves differently during Wave 5 compared to Wave 3:
- Wave 3 RSI often peaks higher (75-80).
- Wave 5 RSI may struggle to reach Wave 3 highs, signalling a divergence if price makes a higher high but RSI doesn’t.
Here’s the expected RSI path for Wave 5:
| Nifty Level (Approx) | RSI Range | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| 24,800 – 26,000 | 60–65 | Healthy zone, no caution |
| 26,000 – 28,500 | 65–70 | Approaching overbought |
| 28,500 – 29,300 | 70–73 | First caution zone |
| 29,300 – 30,500 | 73–76 | Divergence risk |
| Above 30,500 | 76+ | Possible final euphoric move |
Watch for divergence signs: Price making new highs while RSI makes lower highs — a classic Wave 5 topping signal.
Projected Wave 5 Nifty Target Zones Based on Fibonacci Extension
Using Fibonacci extension from Wave 3:
- Minimum Projection: 26,311
- 0.618 Extension: 29,311
- Potential Extended Wave 5 Target: 29,920 – 30,500
These are the likely zones where Wave 5 may terminate before a larger corrective pattern emerges.
Summary Trading Strategy
- Trail profits as Nifty crosses 26,311.
- Watch RSI behaviour around 70–73 — possible exhaustion zone.
- Respect support at 24,474 and critical 23,588.
- Be cautious if RSI divergence develops in the 29,300–30,500 region.
- Summary of Strategy
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Targeted Countries:
This blog post is intended for readers and traders in India, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Please consult your registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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