Nifty 50 - Analysis

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NIFTY 14 MAY 2025 : If Nifty breaks and sustain below 24550 then it can come around 24350 levels. No major dip expected unless it breaks 23800.


 The Nifty 50 index fell 346.35 points, or 1.39%, to settle at 24,578.35 on May 13, 2025. This decline comes after the index saw its biggest one-day performance in four years on May 12, when it jumped over 3.5%.

In my opinion, the market appears to have taken into account every positive development. It might not be as easy as it seems at the moment. Since Pakistan's past differs from India's, I do not believe that this silence will last much longer in light of the geopolitical tension between the two countries.

Since Nifty is showing signs of trend reversals with heavy option unwinding, option selling near resistance zones (24,600 CE) or buying Puts on breakdowns (below 24,150) would be strategic moves this week.

As I have already informed on twitter that if Nifty goes below 24550, it may come to 24350 levels. I believe we are going to see that move today. Today's high of 24974 nay remain the top for now. As long as Nifty is above 23800, I cannot say that it wouldn't make another newer top again. Well, but right now 23800 is too far. So it is fair to assume for support around 23350 levels. 

 Key Technical Indicators

  • Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): Approximately 52.6, indicating a neutral momentum. 
  • Stochastic Oscillator (9,6): Around 97.9, suggesting overbought conditions.
  • MACD (12,26): Positive at +69.22, indicating bullish momentum. 
  • ADX (14): Approximately 20.9, suggesting a weak trend strength.
  • Commodity Channel Index (CCI 14): At -59.8, pointing towards a bearish bias. 

 Support and Resistance Levels

  • Immediate Support: Around 23,668.7. 
  • Immediate Resistance: Near 25,279.8.
  • Rising Trendline Breakdown: On the 15-minute chart, Nifty has broken below a rising trendline, indicating a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.

 Market Outlook

The Nifty 50's recent decline, following a significant rally, suggests potential profit-booking and market consolidation. The overbought Stochastic Oscillator indicates caution, while the neutral RSI and positive MACD suggest mixed signals. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as a breach below the immediate support could signal further downside, while a move above the resistance may indicate renewed bullish momentum.

I’m Praveen Kumar, a seasoned Technical Analyst and stock market trader with over 25 years of experience in the Indian equity and derivatives markets. My passion for numbers and patterns led me to a dual career as a Mathematics Teacher and market technician. I specialize in Technical Analysis, with deep expertise in Elliott Wave Theory, derivatives strategies, and market forecasting. Over the years, my analysis and market views have been featured on NDTV Profit as a financial guest, along with published articles on reputed financial web portals, sharing insights on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and stock market trends. As a trader and analyst, I focus on interpreting price action, chart patterns, wave counts, and technical indicators to deliver precise market levels and actionable trade ideas. My approach blends classical charting with modern analysis tools to help traders navigate market volatility. Through VieCapital, I aim to share daily market analysis, trading strategies, and educatio…
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