NIFTY 13 May 2025 : Just maintain distance from market. Technical target 25000 to 25200 but it can fall from nearby top.

As of May 12, 2025, the Nifty 50 index exhibited a significant bullish trend, closing at 24,924.70, marking a 3.82% increase—the largest single-day gain in over four years.  This surge was primarily driven by positive geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, and favorable global trade news. 

I must say, this ceasefire may not last longer so be vary careful. Anything can still happen.  Market can fall from sufficient higher levels,  May be 25100 to 25200. If fall comes, it will be very sharper. 

Below 24580, it will definitely fall.

 Technical Indicators Overview

Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): At 73.7, indicating overbought conditions.

Stochastic Oscillator (9,6): At 99.0, also suggesting an overbought market.

MACD (12,26): Positive at 137.01, signaling bullish momentum.

Average Directional Index (ADX 14): At 40.77, reflecting a strong trend.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI 14): At 106.23, supporting the bullish outlook.

Williams %R: At -0.14, indicating overbought conditions.

Ultimate Oscillator: At 80.35, further confirming overbought status. 

These indicators collectively suggest a strong bullish momentum; however, the overbought readings imply a potential for short-term consolidation or correction. 

 Moving Averages Summary

All major moving averages are currently signaling a Strong Buy: 

Simple Moving Averages (SMA): The 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs are all trending upwards.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA): Similarly, the 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs are indicating a bullish trend. 

This alignment across multiple timeframes reinforces the positive market sentiment. 

 Key Support and Resistance Levels

Immediate Resistance: Between 25,000 and 25,500.

Immediate Support: Around 24,500.

Critical Support: A decisive break below 23,800 could extend the decline toward 23,200.  

Traders should monitor these levels closely, as breaches could signal shifts in market dynamics. 

Futures Market Overview

Nifty Futures Premium: The Nifty May 2025 futures closed at 25,051, a premium of 126.3 points over the spot price of 24,924.70. This premium indicates bullish sentiment among traders.  

Open Interest (OI) Changes: The Nifty futures open interest increased by 1.91%, suggesting the addition of long positions.  

India VIX: The volatility index, India VIX, decreased from 15.87 to 15.47, indicating reduced market volatility and increased investor confidence.  

 Options Market Insights

Call Options

Maximum Call OI: The highest open interest was observed at the 25,000 strike, with 72.53 lakh contracts, marking it as a significant resistance level.  

Call Writing Activity: Significant call writing was noted at the 24,000 strike, adding 38.38 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,100 and 25,000 strikes.  

Put Options

Maximum Put OI: The 24,000 strike held the maximum open interest with 67.71 lakh contracts, indicating strong support at this level.  

Put Writing Activity: The 24,000 strike also saw the highest addition of 28.45 lakh contracts, reinforcing its position as a key support level.  

 Put-Call Ratio (PCR)

PCR Value: The Nifty PCR increased from 0.98 to 1.17, suggesting a bullish bias as more puts are being written compared to calls.  

 Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Zone: The 24,000 level is emerging as a strong support, backed by substantial put writing and open interest.  

Resistance Zone: The 25,000 level is acting as a significant resistance, highlighted by the highest call open interest.  

FII & DII Trading Activity – May 12, 2025

FIIs: Net buyers of ₹1,246.5 crore in the cash segment.  

DIIs: Net buyers of ₹1,448.4 crore in the cash segment.  

 Market Outlook

While the current technical indicators and moving averages suggest a strong bullish trend, the overbought conditions highlighted by several oscillators warrant caution.  Investors should be prepared for potential short-term corrections and consider implementing risk management strategies accordingly.