DJIA Technical Analysis (19 May 2025) - Can it cross above 42800 to have another rally or fall from here. Make or break situation.
Price Action
Current Price: 42,422.50
Resistance Level: 42,790.89 (very close to being tested — crucial zone)
Support Zones:
- 41,757.27 (SMA 50)
- 41,650.55 (SMA 100)
- 41,338.11 (SMA 200)
Price has strongly bounced off the March low (around 36,480.50) and is now testing a critical resistance just below 42,800. A breakout above this could open up a move towards the previous highs around 45,065.00.
Moving Averages
EMA 20 (Yellow): Acting as short-term dynamic support.
EMA 50, 100, 200: Price is now well above these — a bullish alignment is shaping up (though SMA 50 still catching up).
A classic Golden Cross setup may soon appear between SMA 50 and SMA 100/200, which would be medium-term bullish confirmation.
RSI (14)
- Value: 61.47
- RSI is in bullish territory but not overbought yet (70+).
- Momentum is positive and RSI is trending upward above its moving average (56.17) — a healthy sign.
Volume
Volume has been decent during the recent rally but not extremely high — ideally, a breakout above 42,800 should come with a noticeable volume spike to confirm strength.
Elliott Wave View (Possible Count)
- Wave 3: Likely completed near 45,065
- Wave 4: Concluded with March 2025 low
- Current Movement: This is likely Wave 5 in progress, targeting above 45,000 if it clears 42,800.
If this is Wave 5:
Targets: 43,800 > 45,000
Invalidated if breaks back below 41,650
Summary
- Bias: Bullish as long as it holds above 41,757-41,650
- Key Watch:
- Breakout above 42,790.89
- RSI heading toward overbought (>70)
- Volume confirmation
- Next Target: 43,800-45,000
Read more previous Elliott wave analysis - Click to Read
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