NIFTY 28 APRIL 2025 : Chart Analysis - warning sign amid Indo-Pak conflict. Below 23800, expect fall !!!

 


Hello everyone, 

    The above charts provide sufficient evidence that the market appears uneasy and could become even more so. The following are some key points in the aforementioned chart:

  • It has closed below 200 DMA. 
  • Important support lies near 100 DMA and previous important levels of 23500. 
  • Immediate support is at 23800
  • Resistance - 24365
Another important development is that the INDIA VIX increased by 5.50% during Friday's session and is now back at 17.15. Let's also examine the hourly chart. Even it doesn't seem nice, I can say. In actuality, it also suggests a fall caused by anxiety.


Band Bollinger was what I used. The fact that it came to trade near the lower portion of the band and indicated negative trend is easily observable. 23800 or lower will be the new break point. I predict that a break below 23800 will result in levels similar to 23500 and 23200. 
  • Key support 23800
  • Breakdown target can be 23500 in rapid fire mode. 
 The safe point of buy trade is far away. Being on the buy side in an uncertain situation is never easy, really. It's time to examine the weekly chart as well.


Key point is 
  • Gravestone Doji formation, giving bearish sign. 
  • Closing is just below 50 Weeks moving average. 
  • Key support of 100 Weeks moving average is far away - right now 22300 levels. 
I am expecting a negative week based on above chart. 

Conclusion: Since news flow would be the deciding factor for indexes, one must exercise enough prudence. Avoid taking on the risk of carryover trades, especially with options. There is just one instance of this type of circumstance in our history, and that was during the Kargil War. I anticipate trepidation in transactions till India's action starts.

The market will attempt to stabilize until it has clarity, regardless of whether we go to war. Why not this time? It did so in 1999. However, I do not anticipate a war, but rather limited military activity.

"Pakistan cannot afford the price of war, but India can. India lost Rs. 10k crores in the Kargil war. This time, such an action may cost Rs. 1 lakh crs, or possibly more, if I solely use that calculation. Is it something Pakistan can afford? The government shouldn't consider the expense. Simply do it. Enough is enough.

Since any act of terrorism ought to be dealt with severely, I myself support vigorous military response. Peace is a basic necessity for growth.

Finally, I have a point: Pakistan will use its nuclear weapon on itself, not India, if it does so.

I’m Praveen Kumar, a seasoned Technical Analyst and stock market trader with over 25 years of experience in the Indian equity and derivatives markets. My passion for numbers and patterns led me to a dual career as a Mathematics Teacher and market technician. I specialize in Technical Analysis, with deep expertise in Elliott Wave Theory, derivatives strategies, and market forecasting. Over the years, my analysis and market views have been featured on NDTV Profit as a financial guest, along with published articles on reputed financial web portals, sharing insights on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and stock market trends. As a trader and analyst, I focus on interpreting price action, chart patterns, wave counts, and technical indicators to deliver precise market levels and actionable trade ideas. My approach blends classical charting with modern analysis tools to help traders navigate market volatility. Through VieCapital, I aim to share daily market analysis, trading strategies, and educatio…
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