HDFCBANK - Great week ahead. Expect 10% up move in the days to come if market favours. Downside limited.
Hello everyone,
What a chart in this kind of market. It is showing a perfect time for 10% rally or may be even more. Even if market fall due to some reason then also it will not give any great dip. A perfect long consolidation with reverse H&S pattern and a breakout last week. Here are some key indicators
Key Technical Indicators
- Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): 75.64 – Indicates an overbought condition.
- MACD (12,26): 25.69 – Bullish crossover, supporting upward momentum.
- Stochastic Oscillator (9,6): 71.27 – Suggests a bullish trend.
- ADX (14): 43.16 – Reflects a strong trend strength.
CCI (14): 114.92 – Indicates a bullish signal.
Moving Averages
All major moving averages signal a “Buy”:
- Short-term: MA5 at 1905.06, MA10 at 1891.98
- Medium-term: MA20 at 1879.54, MA50 at 1818.98
- Long-term: MA100 at 1813.44, MA200 at 1769.86
These values indicate that the stock is trading above its key moving averages, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Price Performance & Trend
- Current Price: ₹1,906.70
- Weekly Gain: +8.03%
- Monthly Gain: +10.34%
- 52-Week Gain: +28.22%
Support & Resistance Levels
According to MarketScreener, the following support and resistance levels are identified:
- Short-Term Resistance: ₹1,935.22
- Short-Term Support: ₹1,794.85
- Long-Term Resistance: ₹2,079.96
Long-Term Support: ₹1,689.25
Cautionary Notes
While the technical indicators point towards a bullish trend, the RSI suggests that the stock is in an overbought condition. Investors should monitor for potential pullbacks or consolidation phases. It's advisable to consider fundamental factors and market conditions before making investment decisions.
FII Activity in April 2025
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April 15, 2025: FIIs made their largest single-day net purchase since March 27, buying shares worth ₹6,065 crore. This surge was driven by strong buying in sectors like realty, banking, and auto.
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April 17, 2025: FIIs continued their buying spree, purchasing shares valued at ₹18,210 crore and selling shares totaling ₹13,542 crore, resulting in a net inflow of ₹4,667 crore.
These consecutive net purchases indicate a positive shift in FII sentiment towards the Indian market.
While specific data on FII investments in HDFC Bank during this period is not detailed, the banking sector's prominence in the recent FII buying trend suggests that HDFC Bank likely benefited from these inflows. Historically, HDFC Bank has been a significant component of FII portfolios, and increased activity in the banking sector often correlates with heightened interest in such blue-chip stocks.
As of April 2025, HDFC Bank continues to demonstrate strong financial performance and stability. Here's a comprehensive fundamental analysis based on the latest available data:
📊 Financial Performance (Q4 FY25)
- Net Profit: ₹176.57 billion, marking a 6.7% year-on-year increase.
- Net Interest Income (NII): ₹320.7 billion, up 4.6% year-on-year.
- Total Income: ₹470,915.93 crore, reflecting substantial growth driven by strong interest and non-interest income.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): ₹23.11 (basic), consistent with the previous year.
Balance Sheet Metrics
- Gross Advances: ₹27.73 trillion, a 7.7% increase year-on-year.
- Deposits: ₹27.15 trillion, up 5.9% quarter-on-quarter.
- Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR): Reduced to 96.5% from 104% a year earlier, with a target of 85%-90% by FY27.
- CASA Deposits: Grew by 8.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a healthy increase in low-cost deposits.
Asset Quality
- Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA): 1.33% as of March 2025, down from 1.42% in the previous quarter.
- Net Non-Performing Assets (NNPA): 0.43%, slightly up from 0.33% a year earlier.
💰 Dividend and Valuation
- Dividend: Declared ₹22 per share for FY25, with a record date set for June 27, 2025.
- Intrinsic Value Estimates:
- Median Fair Value: ₹2,657.78 per share.
- EV/EBITDA Model: ₹1,729.75.
- EV/Sales Model: ₹2,987.53.
🏦 Strategic Initiatives
- Loan Securitization: Plans to expand loan securitization to manage balance sheet growth and maintain liquidity.
- Post-Merger Integration: Following the merger with HDFC Ltd. in July 2023, the bank is focusing on aligning its loan-to-deposit ratio and enhancing deposit mobilization.
📈 Market Position
- Systemically Important Bank: Recognized by the Reserve Bank of India as a Domestic Systemically Important Bank (D-SIB), requiring higher capital buffers.
- Stock Performance: Shares reached an all-time high of ₹1,919.35 on April 17, 2025, reflecting strong investor confidence.
✅ Summary
HDFC Bank's robust financial metrics, strategic initiatives post-merger, and strong market position underscore its solid fundamentals. The bank's focus on improving asset quality, expanding its deposit base, and maintaining profitability positions it well for sustained growth.
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