30 March 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expiry day – Will it challenge for a new all-time high? Nothing is impossible.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

30 March 2017: -

On 29 March 2017: FII Net Bought – 460.98 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1283.03 Crs

Nifty filled the gap up and then went up with the formation of almost double bottom reflected on chart. There is one intermediate top with the bottoms and that top is 9135. Right now Nifty has closed above this threshold. Hence, we may have reasons to expect a bullish derivative expiry. Just based on technical price momentum we can expect expiry day high to be around 9200-9218.

On different side technical indicators like RSI is not showing great strength. Well, it is not either showing warning side of weakness. It may be decisive sooner. In past two days of pullback, Advance- Decline was not as strong as we would have expected it to be near all-time high. This is a point of concern.

Take a note that if market has to make a top sooner, then it is going to be mid cap and small cap stocks which will see early sign of weakness. Logic is simple, money prefer to move out from the relatively riskier stocks first.

I am keeping my view for rise right now but I am not very firm on the move that we can move too far from current levels. It is consolidating and outcome may be anything.

For today’s trading we can expect the rise to continue. As said above we can expect 9200-9218 as a high on expiry day. I have no call after hitting such levels. If it advances further than it must be short covering or it may see a fall from those levels to form double top. As I can read momentum indicators like RSI and MACD, I am not very confident to buy for next month either. Right now, bullish for the day.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Day before yesterday it gave a buy signal which is continuing right now. SGX Nifty is giving a start above 9200. This is good and better. This can invite short covering. Remember, you cannot enjoy more than the short covering rally in any mode of market. Technical says, target can be defined on magnitude of short covering. I am hoping; let us see how much it comes. Big question – Will it even come or not? If Mid cap or small cap indices goes in red then avoid any kind of long.

BANK NIFTY April future – This is still better than Nifty. It is good to see it above 21450. DO you know? BANK NIFTY has previous high at 21336 and yesterday it hits 21408. Surely, better than Nifty which is shy by nearly 1% from its previous top? So, this index is a better buy in case of buy. Technical says, I can expect levels of 21600-21700 for the day.