10 March 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nothing great yet. Nifty may try to break 9000. Will it succeed?
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
10 March 2017: -
On 09 March 2017: FII Net Bought – 487.61 INR Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 10.98 Crs
Hide and seek game continues near 9000. We are on Friday and we will
see a long vacation as Monday is holiday. Market is already considering positive
from exit poll of state election where results will come when market will be
closed.
At this point of time market is considering win for BJP and hence
market sentiment is better. There is no great technical aspect for the day. Market
is not able to push above 9000 levels. Will it break today? Well, I do not see
much scope for the day.
For today’s trading I am expecting Nifty to open on flat to positive
note. Once again we may hope that it may try to test levels near 9000 but I am
not very confident now that it takes a test. It will be safer to stay away from
index activity and focus only on stocks. It does not matter how much one
speculate but slowly technical indicators are tiring. I am sure that if next
rally has to come then it must come with fresh and strong money. Old buyers are
not confident.
A new all-time is required. If that happens then it will be
confirmation of next big rally in Indian market which can extend rest of the
year without any threat of big price correction. In normal circumstances this
kind of levels demands extreme caution to deal. Remember, may global indices have
traded well above their previous all-time high with breakout.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty March future
– Will it test 9000 or will it miss again. Traders should not burn in this kind
of range bound activity. Technical support may be at 8900 levels. This flip
flop activity can be names as consolidation but I must warn that is some early
signs on distribution pattern emerging. Either market will break on higher side
sooner or it may go under correction.
BANK NIFTY March future – My
study remains same. On the hope of 21000, it looks like Bank Nifty is also
getting tired. If it does not react at these levels immediately then it may run
short of time. This may result some pullback on Bank Nifty. Hence, it is not a
time based trading buy right now. One should prefer to avoid long unless some
real strength emerges.
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