30 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Concluding trading day of 2016 = Hope to be bullish!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

30 December 2016: -

On 29 December 2016: FII Net Sold – 662.29 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 957.83 Crs

Expiry date used to be a puzzle to solve. I was expecting a expiry below 8000 but it maintains the positive zone though out the day. That drives me to add long for second half rise and it worked well. We capitalized 8000 call option in this process. Closing has meaning as it went above 8100 levels. I am not expecting this to give up so easily as very recently market has denied fall.

Take a look we are on the same situation with the beginning on January series where we were in December series. I can hope that it should not go like December series where first half was dull.

For today’s trading I am expecting that market will go on vacation mode on the New year eve. This used to happen every year. Participation is likely to be less and hence trading range may be narrow. Well, if it comes then we can expect some higher levels. Technical support will be at 8060 levels. There is one situation which can bring uncomforting. Remember, 7916 was a previous low and market went up after breaking the low on decisive way. So, picture is we have lower low.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – I am not in the mood to be bearish on contra view at least for today. Technical says that market has potential to be up to entering in New Year. Let us see if this works. If this works then Nifty January future may gain by 100-150 points more before seeing any remarkable profit taking. So far, this is my view only. It has not converted in to trade.     

BANK NIFTY – It has closed above 18000 levels and that great way to start new series. Off the low is always a favourable situation. Technical support will remains at 17900 and on higher side it can challenge resistance levels of 18300 levels. Time is on let us seeing if this works today.