23 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: How long can it save 7916 levels? It has to break sooner or later.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

23 December 2016: -

On 22 December 2016: FII Net Sold – 614.40 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 319.79 Crs

Finally, Indian market has denied all strength of global market and slipped lower. It was just one flat day on global indices. We are coming close to derivative expiry and I feel that market is still much higher than the expected levels. It is giving all signs that Nifty will break the lows of 7916 sooner or later. I can still say that we have not seen the panic in the market yet. If it has to form bottom then it will form with a panic only. Market must go nervous before quarterly earnings.

In true sense market has not factored any negative factor yet it has yet to react on index levels. It looks like optimism has saved the Indian market which was and which is an exit opportunity.

For today’s trading I am expecting a negative opening with words of optimism but those are useless. I am expecting another down day. I am expecting support only at 7916 although we may have trading support at 7950 which used to come every time it had broken 8000.  

Technical momentum indicators like MACD is giving a clear sell which is saying that this fall may have more pain.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – We may get opening dull but it will be below 8000 levels. If it can sustain below 7960 then we can expect levels of 7900 sooner or may be by today only. Technical resistance will emerge at 8030 levels. Friday before expiry used to be impressive day.

BANK NIFTY – So finally it has broken all supports and coming at 17900. If I am right then I am expecting derivative expiry coming as bad as 17300. Well, it can be reality if bounce fails to come. It is my wild expectation that bounce may not come now. Let us see what it going to happen next. Today is Friday and lots of action expected.