19 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Will is sustain below consolidation lower zone of 8125 to result 8050 on Monday itself?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

19 December 2016: -

On 16 December 2016: FII Net Sold – 90.36 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 30.48 Crs

Nifty hot moved so far for this month. It was at 8190 at the beginning of this month and it is trading in the range of less than 200 points so far and hence it is creating lots of flip flop moves. Technical support remains in the range of 8100 to 8050. This consolidation is longer than enough. My fair expectation is that market should go nervous this week as next quarterly results may go worse from bad now.

I had a simple view for last week that 8275 to 8125 is not the zone to trade. I am expecting this break on downside this week. Although I am quoting actual technical support to come in the range of 8100 to 8050. It is showing that we may remain longer in this consolidation zone.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat to negative opening. Now, suppose if it breaks and sustain below 8125 then we can see the possible slide towards 8050 levels which is the lower end of support. Will it happen so simple the way I am writing? It may not be. I have a strong believe that it will happen sooner or later. I cannot spot out on which day will this happen but sooner.  

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – SGX Nifty is showing down tick right now. If opening goes like this which may be below 8120 then it is going to be interesting opening. So, we may have chance to see the down side break of this consolidation zone in the opening. It is crucial to see the follow up trade. If it works then a percent cut is very much possible as of now.

BANK NIFTY – My study remains same and my key point is 18300. I cannot trade long unless it takes out 18700 which is not going to be easy. Lower side support is at 18300 and we are close to these levels but can it give this downside easily. Let us see but I am biased towards bears to be bearish. I have yet to take bearish trade on this.