15 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A gap down may be a bear gap down. Expect 8050-8100 as support but this will fail sooner or later.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

15 December 2016: -

On 14 December 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 632.29 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 210.86 Crs

Well, we have seen three days of flop – flop moves as Monday down, Tuesday UP and then Wednesday down. It must have trapped many. This is the formation of sandwiched pattern in favour of bears and now it is looking like to take a gap down. This is news driven gap down as US fed has hiked bank rate but to me it was expected.

I already had believed that Indian market has pattern which is showing for fall in second half of the month. This is on its way now. All eyes may be on technical support of 8100. Well, it has support range in the zone of 8100-8050. Here, I have a bold view – THIS SUPPORT WILL NOT SAVE MARKET FOR LONG TIME. Sooner or later it has break. Then one can expect the break of 7900 too.

For today’s trading I am expecting a gap down. Market will consolidate near to 8100 on optimism but traders must save them self from this kind of trap which comes in the form of consolidation. It may be same as of part three days only levels are changing. Do we have opportunity to trade fresh on index? No, if you do not have short from past days then do not add without bounce. But yes, one can add short on every bounce.

It is strongly advisable that market may give a top sooner so do not take many long at these levels. December is not going to be comfortable month for trading.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – I am not active on Nifty Future rather I am still active on 8200 put and 7800 put. Well, if this gap down maintains then I may not opt adding short at lower levels. Technical support is at 8120-8100 levels. It is looking like to hit 8050 or nearby levels if momentum comes. I am geeting a feel like seeing a good fall next week also.

BANK NIFTY – This index was clearer than Nifty. It has faced resistance on dot at 18700 and then slipped. Once again I say to keep an eye on 18300, if this breaks then it can hit levels of 18000 again. It may consolidate or it may take some time but sooner or later this is going to happen. Do not trade long unless it takes out 18700 in a confident way.  It looks like it can break 18300 without trade in this gap down.