13 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Can it break the support of 8150? If yes then it can be eventful day for bears.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

13 December 2016: -

On 12 December 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 94.45 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 266.20 Crs

Can we say that 8275 will remain the top? Well, so far it looks that yes we should say that. Market is again trading below 200 DMA. This makes a sense that market is unable to push itself much above 200 DMA which is suggesting that market is not ready to take out 200 DMA in decisive way. My short term wave count is saying me that if I take this as five waves fall (which actually is a reality) then this up side comes in 4^th wave which is used to be choppy and dicey. Once this ended then we can expect a brutal fall. I am not in hurry to say for that fall to come today but it will come sooner or later.

Take a note that I have already said that second half of month will definitely belong to bears only. The magnitude of fall can be big and it can be near to 7500. So this market is running on the edge. A question is – what can take this market so dip? Well, I do not know why is this coming? I just know that fall is coming.  

For today’s trading I am not expecting anything as gap down. Market will again try to consolidate in this range which may not give much trading opportunity but it can fall gradually. 8150 may act as support but let us see how can this saved? I can say that meaningful technical resistance is still at 8275-8300 levels. We are not too far from those levels. I am still not saying a firm down for the day.

It is strongly advisable that market may give a top sooner so do not take many long at these levels. December is not going to be comfortable month for trading.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – It may not be very interesting day to deal Nifty future as moves on either side is going to soft. I see a technical support at 8160. Will it break? If yes then we can expect something happening interesting for bears. Technical resistance will emerge at 8230-8240 levels but that’s just for intraday. Meaningful resistance is still at 8280-8300 kind of levels. One more day is needed like yesterday.  

BANK NIFTY – This index was clearer than Nifty. It has faced resistance on dot at 18700 and then slipped. Once again I say to keep an eye on 18300, if this breaks then it can hit levels of 18000 again. It may consolidate or it may take some time but sooner or later this is going to happen. Do not trade long unless it takes out 18700 in a confident way.