12 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 8250 should be trigger for next 1% rise but it may not work.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

12 December 2016: -

On 09 December 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 200.52 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 289.57 Crs

I have quoted this 50% mark as resistance which can be turning point for market. It has closed above 8250 levels on Friday. Optimism says that let us see if this can stand above this for today. Big question is that if this can sustain above 8250 today or not. If this can sustain then a possible test of 8335 is very likely but I do not see much chance as top may come within few days. I do not have concrete short signal here but this can emerge sooner.

Take a note that I have already said that second half of month will definitely belong to bears only.

For today’s trading it looks like we are going to get a bear gap down opening. It means that this is going to be gap down which will not fill. It is too early to say but if this happens then we may be on the highest point of the month. For today’s trading support is at 8200 and resistance is on 8300+ levels. Do not expect wide trading range today also. It may be limited zone just like Friday even after gap down.

It is strongly advisable that market may give a top sooner so do not take many long at these levels. December is not going to be comfortable month for trading.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – SGX Nifty is now trading at 8240 and this makes me feel that 8300 and nearby levels is not going to act as trigger for second rise. I have a small long from this range itself which I have not booked. My first duty is to come out of this long and then I may opt to hunt for top and short. One thing is for sure that if market does not cross 8300-8320 by today or tomorrow then Nifty will head for 8000 levels by this week only. Note that my monthly target is still 7500 levels.

BANK NIFTY – I can say that it has done its target at 18700 and now it is on make or break levels. If this fails at 18700 then we are likely to see a sell off from here. I must say that top has not confirmed yet neither sell has generated but it may emerge today. If this is going to be the case then we can expect a fall towards 18300 levels.