You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
07 December 2016: -
On 06 December 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 161.80 Crs: DII Net Sold – INR – 164.68 Crs
Well, day before yesterday we saw rise in last hour and yesterday we
saw selling in last hour. It is happening very frequently and showing the
confusion running in the market. Now we are close to RBI’s next monetary policy
and market may like to take cue from those. I do not like to predict the
outcome. We all may know this. No rate cut will be a surprise. Market may be
discounting the rate cut which is most likely. So what can boost market? A
comment on future policy will help bulls. Will it come?
For today’s trading I am expecting a flat opening. Market levels
remain same as of yesterday. Technical support will emerge at 8100-8080 and
resistance lies at 8200. I am making a chance for the day. If Nifty can sustain
above 8200 then it is most likely to impress bulls with its momentum. Normal sense
suggests that it can give 8250-8300 kind of levels. For anything on down side
Nifty needs to stand below 8100 which is not the case which I am expecting
right now. Let us see. Nothing is possible for the day.
Technical resistance for Nifty is at 8250 and support is at 8125-8100.
RBI policy may be the decisive event.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty December
future – I am not seeing the break of trading range sooner but can expect
even based breakout or breakdown now. On higher side 8230-8250 is a resistance
while on down side even if Nifty Future can stand below 8150-8140 we can see
the rapid down side moves. Take a note that we cannot find any great trading opportunity
if Nifty stand between 8220 to 8150. Trade soft.
BANK NIFTY – My call
remains same and this index is not same as Nifty. Below 18300 we can expect
18000. It hits 18700 and then took a “U” turn. It is suggesting that 18700 will
remains a decisive resistance on higher side. If fall continues from these
levels then it can hit levels of 18300 and then it may start a move towards
18000 levels. Can we have chance to see a cross above 18700. Well, unless this
happens do not trade long on this index. As long as it is above 18300, we can
expect another test of 18700. It may not be too easy but it is possible.
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