30 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Shall we trade long? My answer remains same – IGNORE rise and be safe!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

30 November 2016: -

On 29 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 715.30 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 534.20 Crs

Well, Nifty turned shy at 8200. I can say that market has not able to find buyer at 8200 yesterday. This gave us a sense that 8200 may turn decisive today. I am not very optimistic. It is my strong view that Indian market get an extended recovery due to good rise in US market which has compensate the bad sentiment. Currents developments are suggesting that we should not expect the expected rate cut in December.  

For today’s trading I am expecting a flattish start. I just do not want to participate long in the zone of 8150 to 8200 levels. My view is simple that if market wants to take a turn then it can be the level. Sooner or later it will take a turn. Technical support is at 8100 and the next support is at 8050 levels. Let us see which support will get respect and which resistance will come in to play.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – I can still say I will not be buyer at or near 200 DMA. I am expecting 8220 as decisive resistance. Technical support is far away and that it only at 8120 and then at 8070 levels. I am still not clear for a trade. I am getting a sense of some brutal topping out sooner or later.  

BANK NIFTY – My views remains same for BANK NIFTY. I can repeat that resistance is at 18700 only we are too far from that level. Hence, it is time to just watch. I am not in favour of taking trades at this levels which is not giving me certain buy or sell yet. We may not see much action in coming few days. Do not touch this index to trade. If there is a trade then it can be just long side from lower levels. Big question is what can be that lower levels.