29 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 200 DMA is at 8157. Strong caution is advisable from higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

29 November 2016: -

On 28 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1436.40 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1233.79 Crs

I am avoiding this level to be active. We are near to 200 DMA which is at 8156. If we have to see reactions on market again then it can come anytime sooner here. In my view market will not have big reasons to move up further. I want to decisive for next course of action. An up from here or a down from here will be taken keeping a view for upcoming monetary policy review. I am expecting only choppy moves here which may not be suitable to trade. There is no substantial sell even though we are on resistance.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flattish start. Market may not do much at these levels. It is advisable not to trade unnecessarily in choppy zones. We may not able to see good range on index to trade index although some stocks may be very active. Technical support is at 8070-8050 as of now. On higher side 8160 is the levels which like to watch.  

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – Near to 200 DMA I do not want to be active without any significant signal to trade. Technical resistance is expected to emerge at 8180-8200 levels only. In down side we can expect support to come at 8080. Unless it stays below 8080 there cannot be sell. I am expecting some more choppy sessions before monetary policy review.

BANK NIFTY – I can repeat that resistance is at 18700 only we are too far from that level. Hence, it is time to just watch. I am not in favour of taking trades at this levels which is not giving me certain buy or sell yet. We may not see much action in coming few days. Do not touch this index to trade. If there is a trade then it can be just long side from lower levels. Big question is what can be that lower levels.