24 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Derivative expiry may go wild in favour of bears. My expectation is 7930-7900!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

24 November 2016: -

On 23 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1023.12 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1254.67 Crs

Bear market is the one where recovery comes in timid ways like the way we are seeing this on Nifty. Technical charts are justifying the resistance of 8100 but Nifty remains far away from those levels. We have derivative expiry today and this day is known to be a day of havoc. I feel that market may not favour bulls anymore now. If I am right then Nifty can close on lowest point on this month expiry. It may go as low as 7900 levels.

For today’s trading I am expecting a negative start today as market has already failed to breach resistance yesterday even after best of efforts. This makes me to believe after reading short term wave count. Elliott short term may not work every time but it is showing us a possibility of 7900 for expiry day. Let us see. I will not be very active on expiry day as usual.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – I was expecting 8100 and at one time it was coming close to the given levels but in last minutes sell off it has washed again. Now it is looking for a soft start. Technical support is at 8000-7980 levels. If it is likely to test of break those levels. If it breaks 7980 then we can expect levels of 7930-7900 in quick time. Today is derivative expiry and hence take a word of caution on my views.

BANK NIFTY – I will rather say recovery has not convinced me at all. Technical charts are justifying for another round of sell off. If this happens then we can hope for the retest of 18200-18000 levels very sooner. It can be as sooner as today only. On higher side 18700 will act stiff resistance levels. We can see sell off in the month of December too.