22 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A relief rally can be just a bear market bounce. I need a strong magnitude for bounce.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

22 November 2016: -

On 21 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1310.82 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1211.01 Crs

This is overdone for even me who said for this fall. Global market remains up to firmly up and Indian market is on panic note. Well, I cannot say that fear is without any reason or it is unnecessary. Fear should be there and we have enough reason to be fearful. Impact of currency demonetization will sustain for at least two quarter on economy. I am already seeing a possible slowing down in economy in near term. Such steps are good for long term.

Let us see the technical set up. We have a medium term recovery wave from 6800 to 8900 and we are almost on mid-point of the recovery. Who would have expected this way. Well, its market way. 7900 should act as technical support if 8000 has not worked. We are going to get the answer today if we can get the support and bounce.

For today’s trading I am expecting a positive start. Can we able to see a gap up? Please take a note that we not only need a gap up but also a bull’s gap up for any kind of reversal in trend. This may not be easy in this kind of environment. Technical support will be at 7900 levels. Unless it can stand above 8050 we cannot say that pain is over. A bounce is needed for fresh fall. Hope for a bounce now. It will be a bear market bounce.  

Well, take a note – we may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future – I am expecting a bounce but not claiming so far. We have derivative expiry this week and it will be interesting week to see market closing. Technical support for Nifty November future will be at 7930-7920 zone. If this can open and sustain above 8000 then only can able to see some days of relief. One should use any relief rally to exit any kind of long position or to exit investment.

BANK NIFTY – well, from 18000 levels also if recovery is not coming then it is giving a scary picture of the days to come. I am expecting a bounce but I am equally saying that nothing can give much relief to bulls. One should trade long time to time for bounce but one need to be on short side most of the time in coming months.