01 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty support is at 8580 and then at 8500 levels but today may be a dead session.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

01 November 2016: -

On 30 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 106.77 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 13.15 Crs

Welcome back after a long weekend. Global market is not much negative but Indian market may not find good support with the beginning of this week. I must say that current formation is suggesting strongly for a move towards 8500 but I am unable to see the momentum picking towards this level. Charting is showing a narrowing wedge formation as well as a possible H&S is also visible.

I am again quoting that 8500 is a key support which is likely to break sooner or later. I am not accepting that 8600 may have any meaning now. I have a firm believe that if it breaks 8500 now then market will open scope for levels of 8200-800 which is based on H&S pattern developing. Well, we require more confirmation.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on dull note. Technical support will emerge at 8600 but that’s psychological. Although, it will be safer to expect market taking support at 8580 before decisive fall. I am not quoting any higher resistance as it will be at 8700 levels only.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future –November future contract has closed around 8630 on Diwali day and it is looking to keep opening quote on the same levels itself. Technical support will be at 8600-8580 levels. A confident short may emerge below 8580 which looks little far from now. On higher side 8680-8700 is a zone of resistance and equally a possible short point.

BANK NIFTY – 19500 keeps the key with itself. I suggest ignoring what has happened on expiry day. Market will start giving up very sooner at support levels. Technical charts are giving a sell to a strong sell if we start seeing below 19500 levels. My anticipated target is at 18700 which are based on Elliott wave count. I am extremely as I cannot publish my wave count as those starts unnecessary debate. Very recent, traders try to convince me to be bullish at 8800+ levels.