28 September 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Do not short from low before expiry. I may be off the trade near to expiry.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 September 2016: -

On 27 September 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 155.76 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 90.67 Crs

Well, we got a fall from higher levels again. I have already said that one should not short from lower levels. We got short from higher levels and it was fruitful short. If I am going right then I am expecting dip again. Have a look at low at yesterday’s levels. It was 8690. I have already forecasted for support at 8680. If it breaks 8680 then we can get some fruitful dip for bears. Will it come?

For today’s trading session I am expecting support at 8680 and this may be final before expiry. I must say that if market has to fall then it should fall today. We may not able to see fall tomorrow. I am very cautious towards my short deal before expiry. If I am saying that this is the beginning of wave “C” on long term wave count then 101% it will bring confusion. It’s just a hallmark.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – SGX Nifty is giving a hint for flat start. I am short from yesterday and I will close my short now. I may not be aggressive on shorting. It will not be aggressive on shorting from lower levels unless it breaks 8720 successfully. On higher side 8800 will be meaningful resistance. Let us see how it shapes before derivative expiry.

BANK NIFTY – Well, risk-reward was not favourable but we still see levels of 19500 and this is completion of one target. Now, if this can sustain below 19500 then we can able to see a crash towards 19300 – 19200 levels too. Technically, this sell may go greatly in favour of bears. Do not pick the falling knife.