26 September 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A crucial expiry week – 8600 is still my expectation. Check my long term wave count.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 September 2016: -

On 23 September 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 299.98 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 496.14 Crs

Well, Nifty has not gone above its previous short term high of 8969 levels. Last week we have not seen anything above 8900 levels. Now, this is confirming that 9000 may remain untested in near term. I plotted long term wave count in my snap. One can go through that. Its manual wave count and I followed maximum possible rule for wave counting.

This is saying what I had projected many months ago. Read the last paragraph. The moment is gone above 8000, I said for levels near to 9000 and then a possible toppy formation. We are in the phase of confirmation.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on weaker note. Now we are sitting with huge short from higher levels. We have stock future, Nifty future, Nifty option, Bank Nifty and what’s not. Well, I may prefer to light my position by today only in first half. I am expecting levels neat to 8780 first then we can expect 8740 levels. Can we expect 8600 by expiry? Not impossible.  

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty September future – From the levels of 8875, we have recommended short to our subscribers and added short me too. We have 8800 put also. I will prefer to unwind my partial position on gap down. If my shorts work then I can expect levels of 8740 too. Well, days are limited before expiry but I cannot close my possibility of hitting 8600 levels.  

BANK NIFTY – BANKNIFTY has suitable levels near to 20100 levels for adding short trades. Who even has added must light their position in today’s gap down? I still say that technical charts are governing target for 19500 levels. On higher side 20100-20200 may the stiff levels of resistance. I cannot deny bull’s attempt for revival at lower levels but we cannot say that it can sustain easily. Some of my subscribers has added short from 20100 levels.