23 September 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: DO NOT LONG. Nifty can turn weak below 8830-8820 support levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 September 2016: -

On 22 September 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 336.87 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 310.35 Crs

Just turn shy again at 8900 even after bullish gap up opening. Well, it has sustained with gain and this is well and good. Technical charts are still saying for resistance at 8900. In my view, we may expect that this may turn to be another trap. Global trend has governed trend on Nifty. From here till expiry market may give many surprises. I feel that upside surprise has already come and now it may be turn for surprises to come at lower levels. I must be clear that there is no such great signal and it is just my expectation.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note in spite of gain in US market last night. Technically if Nifty can break below 8830-8820 then only we can think for some meaningful fall. On higher side it has already developed resistance at 8900 levels which may not be easier to cross.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Well, based on technical chart we cannot say that it has generated sell signal but we have such possibility. I strongly suggest avoiding long trade at these resistance levels. Technical charts are saying for the possibility of sell signal below 8840 levels. If it starts trading below 8840 then we can expect levels of 8780 in one go. Let us see what comes on last trading day of the week.

BANK NIFTY – I can say that if charts are right then zone of 20100 to 20200 may be the zone for shorting with small and suitable stop loss. Remember that we have RBI’s policy coming in few weeks and market anticipation is growing. Some geopolitical development may hamper market sentiments. My expected target may be near to the zone of 19500.