20 September 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Some dead movement is expected in market now. I will wait till the break of range.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 September 2016: -

On 19 September 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 205.38 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 252.28 Crs

Monday turn dull and we have not seen great follow up of trade. Nifty has closed above 8800 but somehow it looks to open below 8800 with this morning as gain was not so great in US market overnight. I am seeing silence in global trend. This kind of situation may not fit to trade. Well, I am still optimistic for short opportunity very sooner. I am intact with my price target of Nifty at 8600 levels.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on soft note. This can lead selling if further weakness continues. I am seeing 8770 and 8740 as crucial support for the day. I am not on any trade after booking my 8800 put which may not be great decision as there may be gap down. My decision is based on time decay in second half on option.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty September future – I can still repeat that technical set up is favouring sell mode but we cannot say when will hit in big way. Before slipping in a big way it may turn range bound to choppy and may be one more bounce to wash out weak bears. I am considering this rise as an attempt by market to washout weak bears. Wait for a firm sell signal.          

BANK NIFTY – I need to repeat that 20200 is most stiff resistance which gas failed in rise on Friday too. Technically, I am still hoping for market to hit levels of 19500 sooner or later. I am advising strong caution on this sectoral index. One can use higher levels plus weakness to add short for this week too. As I said earlier that if market is preparing for long term top again then we may have every chance to see steep fall this week, A decisive one.