20 September 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Some dead movement is expected in market now. I will wait till the break of range.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 20 September 2016: -
On 19 September 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 205.38 Crs: DII Net Sold – INR – 252.28 Crs
Monday turn dull and we have not seen great follow up of trade. Nifty
has closed above 8800 but somehow it looks to open below 8800 with this morning
as gain was not so great in US market overnight. I am seeing silence in global
trend. This kind of situation may not fit to trade. Well, I am still optimistic
for short opportunity very sooner. I am intact with my price target of Nifty at
8600 levels.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on soft
note. This can lead selling if further weakness continues. I am seeing 8770 and
8740 as crucial support for the day. I am not on any trade after booking my
8800 put which may not be great decision as there may be gap down. My decision
is based on time decay in second half on option.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty September
future – I can still repeat that technical set up is favouring sell mode
but we cannot say when will hit in big way. Before slipping in a big way it may
turn range bound to choppy and may be one more bounce to wash out weak bears. I
am considering this rise as an attempt by market to washout weak bears. Wait for
a firm sell signal.
BANK NIFTY – I need to
repeat that 20200 is most stiff resistance which gas failed in rise on Friday
too. Technically, I am still hoping for market to hit levels of 19500 sooner or
later. I am advising strong caution on this sectoral index. One can use higher
levels plus weakness to add short for this week too. As I said earlier that if
market is preparing for long term top again then we may have every chance to
see steep fall this week, A decisive one.
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