16 September 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A gap up will bring 8800 on Nifty. A stiff resistance @ 8840 is applicable.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 September 2016: -

On 15 September 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 345.42 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 456.91 Crs

Yesterday turn to be third dead intraday session after a massive gap down. Now, for today’s session market is expected to take a gap fill up which I was expecting from past three days. I booked my shorts and goes on waiting mode. This rise came in line with technical cues. Technical charts were giving hint for a bounce towards 8800 which we will get today. Take a note that if market goes flat and dead at higher levels then we may see a formation of sell signal which can be stronger than the past one.

For today’s trading session I am not expecting market to open around 8780 and then immediate resistance at 8800 levels. I am expecting a test or cross of 8800 levels on higher side for once. My anticipation is for a firm sell signal near or before 8840. Note it very strongly that will 8840 it may be on buy mode. Friday is going to be very interesting.  

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Once again, we have not traded Nifty in choppy market. It is going to take a gap up and it can be a strong gap up. I am expecting a move towards 8860 if it can holds 8800+ levels. I am not sure if I opt trading long. Well, my prefer can be shorting from higher side.        

BANK NIFTY – A retrenchment towards 20200 can provide good opportunity to trade on short side.  It may not able to extend more on higher side. Technically, we can expect this move to go up and then it will create a short signal on higher side. Time is on for fresh bears but be cautious one need to conclude for top formation after gap up. I am least interested in buying this index. If I have to buy then Nifty may be my choice.