22 August 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Do not trade long on expiry week. A MINI correction is about to start.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 August 2016: -

On 19 August 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 409.94 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 106.19 Crs

I still stick on my point that we are almost near the top and a price correction. Market looks to head for better opening. This may not able to add strength to the market. I believe that Nifty will face massive resistance at 8700 or higher levels. It may max hit 8750 before a correction. so it may be in the position where risk can go just 1%.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on positive note but if market remains up then I will prefer to avoid. We are on derivative expiry week. I will plan to trade short only for this week. My shorts may be introduced at suitable levels. Technically, a correction is deserved and wave charts are saying that time is very close. I am issuing a strong word of “CAUTION” for bulls.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty August future – We may have dull to negative start but we may not get decisive start to trade. If market remains choppy then avoid today’s trading session. I am expecting resistance at 8710-8720 levels. If it does not make at high then a dip is possible around 8620 as a target. 

BANK NIFTY – It has definitely not displaying the kind of strength which I was expecting above 19200. Fine, as long as it is above 19200 I may not opt shorting. Well, but below 19200 I will definitely think to short this very seriously. Technically, 19600 may remain untested. We will see resistance emerging at each higher levels.