08 August 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Today, high may be final. Expect a profit taking after gap up ahead of RBI monetary policy.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 08 August 2016: -

On 05 August 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 435.63 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 616.32 Crs

I have added long on Nifty future in the last trading session for just one gap up and which I believe that I will get today. 8710+ may the levels which may be on hunt. I will definitely give up my long with today morning based on my wave chart which I have uploaded. What kind of pattern in this? This is just a bulls attempt to break resistance.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on positive note but higher levels will be dicey. Anything above 8710 may not be safe. I strongly suggest not adding fresh position above 8710-8730 levels. If rise has to come then risk-reward ratio may not in favour of bulls. Those who have added long on Friday or Thursday are on good note. We added on Friday.  8650 is a trading support. I am expecting market to see a dip either from 8710 or 8730 or from 8750. Let us see where will I give by long first.

After looking to this structure and then way market has refused to break below 8000 even in panic we can say that market is preparing something big. This big think can be as big as 9000-9100 levels of Nifty. I see such great possibility hence bears must be cautious.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – I have added long at 8660 and I am prepared to give up my long on this morning itself. Technically, 8750-8760 may be levels from where I may expect a dip. Farewell of Mr. Rajan tomorrow will not be great. I do not hope for any rate cut by him. Market may go nervous today and tomorrow. Bulls should stay not go buy buying today and tomorrow. Trading support is only at 8660.

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty is my concern and it remains my concern. It has failed to deliver. This may be the reason that I am shy to hold my long. If market goes weaker then we can expect a decisive down anytime sooner. Technically, if it fails at 19200 levels then do not attempt from long from higher levels. Before RBI policy 19200 may be crucial and critical.