22 July 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty looks tired near 8600 and this tiredness can be converted in to weakness on this Friday.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 July 2016: -

On 21 July 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 420.22 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 372.40 Crs

Once again it has failed to hit levels of 8600 and corrected as expected. This force to say that this consolidation goes bigger than expected and hence we need to say that market is finally looks tired. In this case we think for significant price correction. My take is that market is tired. My second take it that if it breaks 8470 then price correction can go as low as 8400.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note. Today is Friday and market did nothing in past eight trading sessions. We can expect some slide today as suggested by historic cycle. Technical support is in the zone of 8480-8460. Will it finally? This is going to be interesting. If this happens then we can say that market has top at 76.40% of retrenchment.

After looking to this structure and then way market has refused to break below 8000 even in panic we can say that market is preparing something big. This big think can be as big as 9000-9100 levels of Nifty. I see such great possibility hence bears must be cautious.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Higher resistances are still applicable and we are now about to see the possible price correction. Let us see if we get or not. At the break of 8490 it will slide towards 8410-8400 levels. Strong caution is advised at higher levels. We have already added short in the last trading session.

BANK NIFTY – I was expected this and hence I advised caution at higher levels. Now, it is near 18700. Support if it breaks 18700 then we can see some sharp fall on bank nifty. This is something which can disturb blue chip index too. So finally, we need to add that one must avoid any kind of long trade unless it go above 19200 levels. Let us see what kind of price correction we are about to get.