30 June 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expiry day may go wild with two decisive resistances on Nifty – One @ 8240 next @ 8280!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 June 2016: -

On 29 June 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 102.91 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 20.19 Crs

Gap has filled and it was expected. We are on derivative expiry day. I normally avoid this day and nearer days too for trading activity. So far, things are normal and on upside. Market has digested two bigger shocks in easier ways. In this way market is giving us a sense that market has potential to move forwards and capable enough to break 8300. Well, this is just a sense. If it has to break 8300 then no day can be better than today. Either trap shorts will make forceful exit or long unwind should come. Something has to happen today.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat to positive note. It came at 8200 which I was nothing thinking as so easier to get. Technical charts are suggesting for multiple resistance to emerge at these levels. First such resistance is 8240. Can any resistance work as sell off? If it has to then it can be 8240 only. If it fails at 8240 then expiry can be wild. Do not trade if you are light hearted.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – I got the move which I have predicted but I have not participated looking on to the resistance. Technical charts are suggesting that longer it sustain above 8230-8240 it can add 30-40 points more before testing decisive trend. A short term trend formation or reversal will be indicated today by last half.

BANK NIFTY – So Far it is just dull near 17600 levels. Technical charts are suggesting that as long as it is above 17400 we have no big room for shorting. For long, this trend will remain range bound in the range of 17700-18100 levels. This sectoral index is not in my favourite list so far. Although, if market slips from high then this may have potential to perform.