29 June 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: This rise goes just for a gap fill. If Nifty react at 8200 or nearer then fall is unavoidable.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 June 2016: -

On 27 June 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 146.11 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 147.07 Crs

I need to repeat that Indian market is not recovering as global market after BREXIT. Take a note that Indian market is suffering from RAJANEXIT too. Hence, we are seeing the same result. Now, big question is the outcome and aftereffect of this event. I strongly believe that both exits will make substantial impact in short term. This recovery will sustain as long as it wants but sooner we will see a top formation.

My ultimate target is 7700-7600 levels which should come within a month.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat to positive note. It may not be easy to sustain above 8150-8200 levels. We can see multiple resistances on higher side. I am expecting reaction near 8200 or may be a level before that. I strongly suggest not taking too many trades and being cautious on long trades. A fall is near.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – I am anticipating a move towards 8200 to 8230 levels but we are moving towards a decisive resistance. I was mot very firm on this recovery but do not short as long as recovery holds. Real trading opportunity will come on fall. I may opt trading long but I have no intention on trading for positional.

BANK NIFTY – This index is stronger than the anticipation. Technical charts are suggesting for a move towards 18000-18100 levels. Technical support is a 17400. If this works then it may be a buy with moderate stop loss for a move towards desired target. I still advise caution before derivative expiry. Any surprise move can spoil technical charts. Dull days may go in favour of bears sooner or later.