23 June 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Caution on BRIXT decision. Nifty decisive support = 8130 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 June 2016: -

On 21 June 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 41.10 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 361.34 Crs

I was right that market may undergo in choppy mode. Technically, Indian market may go in a phase of underperformance compared to global indices. I have strong caution for bears. A down move can get first small confirmation only if Nifty can see closing below 8130 levels. So till that time market is on choppy to dull note. Market is definitely looking for outcome BRXIT.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on dull note. It will face immediate resistance at 8260 then 8280 and then finally at 8300 levels. We are moving close to derivative expiry and that can make market uneasy at some point. Stocks look better than index which is suggesting for some fuel left in the market. I am clear that I will not trade long.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – I am in wait mode to trade. Technically, my choice is to trade on short side unless market takes out the crucial 8300 levels. My choice will be a soft to positive opening with top near 8350 levels. Then we can expect a choppy trade. This choppy trade will cause fall in second half. If this strategy works then one can get 50-60 points of on short side.

BANK NIFTY – I am not so firm on BANK NIFTY yet. Technically, it has yet to cross 18100 levels to think for trading long. It has good support at 17400 which was informed earlier. I added long on Nifty from lower levels by seeing BANK NIFTY low only. Now the time is ON. Either break on higher side or break on lower side. Chances are higher that direction will be on downside.