22 June 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We cannot short as long as it is above 8200. If it sustain below 8200 then a soft down is possible.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 June 2016: -

On 21 June 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 484.66 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 335.53 Crs

I booked my long yesterday itself in very first few minutes. Well, why Indian market has failed to perform yesterday? I must say that eyewash policy will not going to help in any way. It is bitter true that Indian corporate earning is not raising and this can makes market odd. Indian media is giving a reflection that Indian economy is rising best in the world which is far away from reality. Wait for my quoted wave “C” to realize the reality.

For today’s trading session I will take a fresh position. If it sustains below 8200 then chances are higher that I may take a short deal. Are we going to test 8000 this time? Well, market is not giving any great clue for direction. It can be either soft down or soft up. I will prefer to trade on soft down or a strong up. Resistance of 8260-8280-8300 will be applicable.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – I covered my long trade at 8230 itself and then moved out of market on anticipation of choppy day. I was right. If it breaks 8190 then we can expect soft 30-40 points of downside. I cannot expect more that this magnitude as of now. Technical resistance will remains at 8260-8280 levels.

BANK NIFTY – I am not so firm on BANK NIFTY yet. Technically, it has yet to cross 18100 levels to think for trading long. It has good support at 17400 which was informed earlier. I added long on Nifty from lower levels by seeing BANK NIFTY low only. Now the time is ON. Either break on higher side or break on lower side. Chances are higher that direction will be on downside.