21 June 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As long as it is above 8200 we can hope for 8300 by it is not going to be easier.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 June 2016: -

On 20 June 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 537.46 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 724.06 Crs

Raghuram Rajan departure was compensated by announcement of reform. Will it really work? Well, it will not be easy work for any RBI governor. Current NDA government has just one agenda and they want to be good on it. Eliminate everyone who does not speak your language. Whatever problem comes just go on denial mode and that’s easiest. I can guarantee that very soon a heavy price is to be paid for economy. I am a trader and I take my own opportunity.

For today’s trading session I may opt to cover my long which I invoke yesterday at 8145 levels. I am already getting good by seeing a possible reversal which has confirmed later. Once again, as long as it is above 8200 we will live possibility of 8300 levels. Let us see what comes.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – I have added long at 8145 and I got a gain by closing minutes. This is fine so far. Technically, as long as it is above 8210-8220, it can extend its gain. Equally, if reversal has to come then also this is an only possible suitable level. Failure at top may generate a sell and hence I advise strong caution.

BANK NIFTY – I am not so firm on BANK NIFTY yet. Technically, it has yet to cross 18100 levels to think for trading long. It has good support at 17400 which was informed earlier. I added long on Nifty from lower levels by seeing BANK NIFTY low only. Now the time is ON. Either break on higher side or break on lower side.