17 June 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once again Nifty may test of 8200. Technical support will come at 8100-8050.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 June 2016: -

On 16 June 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 156.75 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 163.00 Crs

Yesterday’s fall after gap down has again turned as retest of support. This is still good as it has confirmed that 8050 will work as good support. I have not traded short in this fall. In fact we traded long yesterday from lower levels. My conclusion remains same. A pull back is in shape again to give a test towards 8300. If fall has to come then it will come later on.

For today’s trading session we can expect the market to open positive as indicated by SGX Nifty. It can hit levels above 8200 by today’s session again. I must say that 8200-8240 will be the tougher zone of resistance. I may opt to trade long in intraday dip but only if it can maintain intraday support.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – I gave up my long yesterday in very first minutes of trade near 8175 and recollected by long at 8110 to book profit near 8160. This gave me good edge. If makes me feel that if nifty can able to sustain above 8200 then we can expect some good rise. Trading support will emerge at 8170 for intraday.

BANK NIFTY – I still need to see above 18100 then only we can expect some rise. If it can sustain above 18100 then we can expect levels to hit around 18500 as banking stocks may lead market. Technical support is at 17750-17650. Now, it may be decisive. If down trend has to start then it can start only below 17400. Let us see.