16 June 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As long as it is above 8200 levels then we can expect 8300 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 June 2016: -

On 15 June 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 108.23 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 234.10 Crs

I came out of my short and added fresh long yesterday above 8150 and this gave us good. It should be noted that 8050 support saved and confirmed in this recent fall. Now, market is again trying to generate momentum on higher side. It may again try to challenge 8300 levels. Who knows it may give a test this time.

For today’s trading session we can expect the market to open flat to positive. As long as it is above 8200 it is in the strong hand of bulls. We can expect a trading support at 8160-8150 levels. Current pattern is suggesting that we can expect good rise if global situation goes favourable. First challenge will emerge at 8240 and then we can expect something big.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – I have added long at 8150+ levels. It has closed above 8200 and this can be capable to turn to a strong buy. If this happens then Nifty June future can hit 8280-8300 levels. I am not suggesting short even if it maintains 8170-8160 levels. Yesterday was just first day of rise. We need a follow up buying.

BANK NIFTY – Banking stocks used to run on news flow. It has never broken 17400 and now it will have a meaningful resistance at 18100 levels. If it can go above 18100 then we can expect some good rise. Now, trading support will emerge at 17800 levels. I am not going to trade this index. Let us see if this can go above 18100.