14 June 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: The last hope for bulls is at 8050. Below 8050 expect 7900.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 14 June 2016: -
On 13 June 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 212.24 Crs: DII Net Sold – INR – 597.83 Crs
Optimistic people will say that Nifty has saved 8050 and closed above
8100. One may add that it has Doji pattern for traversal. Well, nothing is
going to be easier anymore. Even if I accept that 8050 is going to be crucial support
then also we can say that it can break. Sooner or later it is going to happen.
For today’s trading session we can expect the market to open down and
may be below 8100. Immediately it can hit levels of 8060-8050 to retest
support. It will face resistance on higher side at 8150 levels. It is going to
be very interesting now. If it breaks the way I am thinking then we can see a
big day of fall this week. If market can sustain below 8100 then we can see
some long unwinding. Longs are still in the system.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many
years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of
6000-5500.
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Strategy for Nifty June future
– I am maintaining short from 8250 levels. It hit around 8080 but recovered by
50 points yesterday from lower levels. This does not make too many senses. I may
prefer to trade short only. I am expecting levels below 8000 once it breaks
8070 levels. It can happen today or tomorrow or any day this week.
BANK NIFTY – It gave up at
crucial 18000 levels and corrected towards 17500. This is now enough so far. If
it breaks 17400 then only can see panic like sell off. I am definitely
expecting the sign of correction below 17400. No levels are safer to trade
long. We can expect weakness even if it go higher. Something will come to hurt market
badly for one day in this week.
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