03 June 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Will Nifty hunts for 8300-8340 before monetary policy review? If it wants then today must be the day.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 03 June 2016: -

On 02 June 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 521.85 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 576.86 Crs

I traded long in last 45 minutes yesterday. I cannot say that it has broken the range but I can say that it has given a sense that it can break the range on higher side. We cannot anticipate the outcome in such advance way. I still quote that Nifty is like to make a test of 8240-8275 range before reacting to this rally. We have a possibility that we will get only a time-wise correction. We may not get price correction so easily.

For today’s trading session we can expect the market to open up. So far, the week is dull. We traded a soft intraday long and chances are there that we may pick to trade long only. market is eyeing for the outcome of next monetary policy.

If I am right then we may see levels of 8300-8340 in momentum. It can be an over shoot situation for target. It is interesting to see how market will react on top today. At one glance we can say that one should avoid shorting unless something big happens near top for intraday. Technical support is at 8150-8160.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – I traded long but I still fail to see great breakout on higher side but I have a high hope for today. If market opens higher above 8260 and it remains there then we can see levels of 8340 by today itself. If not 8340 then a nearby levels may be a great possibility. As long as Nifty June future is above 8200 do not opt short easily.   

BANK NIFTY – This index is still disappointing even on rise in index. Technical charts are suggesting that above 17700 we can hope for 18000 but this move will not give much pleasure to the traders. Now the time is on. If it has to happen then it will happen today. Else, it may try to pick policy day to react in full extent. I am repeating what I said in the month of April. A short term top is bound to come on every policy day. It may be the case this time too.