02 June 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Threshold support for short term trend goes at 8080-8060. We may be on decisive day.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 02 June 2016: -

On 01 June 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 259.90 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 160.49 Crs

It turned another dull day as expected and as anticipated. I have quoted for resistance at 8240 levels which has worked so far. Worse goes with bank nifty which has given early sign of price correction. Now, we can be on decisive day before upcoming monetary policy review next week. Political cartel has definitely pressurized RBI governor for rate cut. What will he do now? Current NDA government has presented their ugly part their economic agenda. Perhaps, they have no agenda except talking big. Sooner, this policy paralysis will hurt and cause another big down wave.

For today’s trading session we can expect the market to open flat to up. So far, the week is dull. We have not traded index so far this week. Even for today I have same expectation. Market may remain dull with trading resistance at top near 8240-8270 levels. If I see it going towards my desired resistance then I may opt trading short on higher levels unless it goes above 8240 levels.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – I am unable to see any decisive move even now. We cannot see any great move even today. Do not trade if market goes like this. Threshold support goes now at 8080. As long as it is above 8080 we cannot expect decisive profit taking either. Time correction goes in favour of bulls so far. Let us see what is going to happen next.  

BANK NIFTY – This is index is disappointing at top. Well, as expected it has broken 17500 and it has first sign of short but this is not so firm signal where I can trade with confidence. In any correction on index, this index will fall more. This may be my first choice for shorting if I opt shorting today with resistance at 17700. Do not think to buy at all. Let it fall first to trade short.