12 May 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I safely exited from long yesterday. Below 7800, market may be bearish till Friday.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 May 2016: -

On 11 May 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 362.19 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 729.59 Crs

I must say that market gave a goof passage to bulls to move out of long. I exited safely. Well, p note not touched and so market may not be very worried about tax treaty. Big question is that has the technical set up changes?

I must say yes, it has. I am sensing a double top with second top lower than the first one. Although I was expecting 8000 minimum for the week and then news flow hit. I am still not very out from my forecast of 8000 marks but I am not that confident now. In fact below 7770 it may go under grip of bears again.

For today’s session, market may take a negative start as reflected by SGX Nifty. I have said for bullish first half of the week and it has done. Now we are in last two trading session of the week and I will count this as second half. I will not make fresh attempt to buy. If things favours then market will go lower from here onwards.

I hope it gave you the value of following paragraph which remains the part of my daily analysis.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty May future – I have no position now. I will take my time before adding fresh deal but I am sensing a need to adding short here. I need to decide about levels too and more importantly I need to decide stop loss before trade. Technical support is at 7800 levels. If it breaks 7800 then we can expect a quick fire 70-100 points but on nifty future.     

BANK NIFTY – Do not buy at 200 DMA. A good cross over can give a buy but this is a zone of resistance too. As of now I cannot say that we got a cross over. It may be just facing resistance. If it is a resistance then we can see a dip towards 16200 levels. Today is a decider. Avoid buying for today. Just wait and watch before trades.