29 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 8000 was never turned to reality and broken 200 DMA. LAST HOPE FOR BULLS – 7750 before major MAY month sell off.

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For 29 April 2016: -

On 28 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 120.63 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 416.21 Crs

Expiry goes extremely wild and it failed to cross 8000 marks too. Many said I quoted for expiry at 8100. Well, one should completely. 8100 would be applicable if it would have gone above 8000 but that was never being the case. I usually do not trade expiry day but we added short once it broke 200 DMA and we forward those. I was definitely very late as I would not consider to trade.

Here comes reality. Global market has suddenly turned extremely weak.

For today’s session, market may take a gap down. Now if it failed to fill the gap and then breaks 7750 by any chance then big bear will enter in the market. Be ready for MAY month BIG sell off which can hit very sooner. So 8000 remains untested. Bulls has last hope at 7750 levels.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – I introduces short at 7950 and surely I was very later. It happens as I was not looking for trade. Well, I was late but not very later as market is expected to take a gap down. I was fair to react only at 200 DMA. If things go in my way then I may expect levels of 7750 which is next decisive point. I may be right by good extent on predicted for a brutal sell off coming either in May or in June or in both months.   

BANK NIFTY – 17000 was never be a reality with decisive cross over. It has tested but never sustain. I must say that banking index is not as weak as Nifty but today is the day when it can be weaker than Nifty. Below 16700 we may see a big tank down towards 16250-16000. I stick on my view for target towards 14000 by next few months.