28 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expiry can go as wild as 8100. Do not short the top as no top is final yet.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 April 2016: -

On 25 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 222.34 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 747.95 Crs

Before expiry it was a soft trading session yesterday but there is no great sign of weakness. I must say that 7980-8000 is a psychological and technical resistance. Cross above 8000 may cause a short covering rally on expiry day due to trapped bears. Just because of trapped bear I am not bearish.

How far can Nifty go above 8000? Well, it can be as big as 8100 levels. I usually do not trade expiry day and today I just prefer to be out although I have sensed a long trade yesterday by closing minutes.

For today’s session, keep an eye on 8000 levels. If 8000 has to come for Nifty then today is best day to hit and most desirable day to react. Take a note that 7980-8000 is a zone of resistance and I am not claiming anything before that. I have no position to react. I am sensing a day with UP which can be further UP by closing minutes due to short covering.  

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – I exited my long yesterday in flat range although signs were there to hold long. I am not bearish yet due to trapped short. I am expecting 8050 levels at least by today. If time favours then one can expect levels of 8130. Think – its kinda big rally. Can reversal possible? Anything is possible.  

BANK NIFTY – I said yesterday that some technical facts are indicating that above 16800 we may have reasons to believe for 17000. We got this target. Can it sustain above 17000? I must say that short covering can cause a hit for 17300 levels. Technical support will emerge at 16800-16850 levels. I may not opt to trade this index. I am focusing more on Nifty.