25 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty goes on Expiry week. Can 200 DMA be able to save market?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 April 2016: -

On 22 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 191.07:  DII Net Sold – INR – 168.64

We are on derivative expiry week and Nifty has closed above 200 DMA for a crucial last week. This may give hopes to bulls but one pullback is still missing. I see a possible sign of reversal from psychological hurdle at 7980-8000 levels.

So far, Nifty has saved 7870 levels which is 200 DMA too. As long as it is near to 200 DMA trading direction may depends on intraday trigger. If it breaks 7870 then a dip is possible but as long as it is above 7870 it want to move towards 7980-8000 levels.

For today’s session, opening may go soft but optimism can govern the rule. I want to see Nifty below 7870 to initiate intraday trade.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – We already hold short on Nifty Future from 7950+ levels. I am still keen to see reaction at 7870. I may prefer to exit from my shorts if fall does not come now. How long to wait? Trading at 200 DMA does not necessarily means bearish as it is staying above those levels. If Nifty future breaks 7870 then 7800 may be the possibility.

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty has surpassed 16500 and hence it is giving signs of extension of rise. Now 16500 is still a key but going in favour of bulls. As long as it holds 16500 we can expect 16900-17000 levels. Now, Below 16500 do not opt to buy. A fall should be nearer. Note a point – 16750. It may be a top against all technical levels.