22 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Can it hold 200 DMA support? If not then 1% immediate cut is possible.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 April 2016: -

On 21 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 805.42:  DII Net Bought – INR – 65.72

As expected, Nifty has faced hurdle at 798-8000 levels with a high at 7978 and then a fall. Well, so far it is saving 200 DMA support and trying to make momentum. I have already said that it has to face stiff hurdle around 200 DMA. It may not be easy to move higher. Can this resistance convert in to weakness? Well, even for that we need to see closing below 7870. Today is crucial day for closing levels. Can it close above 200 DMA for this week?

I still believe that we may face resistance in the zone of 7980-8000 levels. This is technical resistance as well as psychological resistance too.

For today’s session, opening may go below 7900 and then we have a decisive support at 7870. If it breaks 7870 then we can see a fall. Even fall may not come so easily. Let us see. I took short on rise yesterday.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – Crucial support comes in the range of 7870-7860 levels. We may see 1% dip below 7860 levels. A good point is to add short on weakness. I do not prefer to trade long today. So far, market has not shown any sectorial under performance.

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty has surpassed 16500 and hence it is giving signs of extension of rise. Now 16500 is still a key but going in favour of bulls. As long as it holds 16500 we can expect 16900-17000 levels. Now, Below 16500 do not opt to buy. A fall should be nearer.