11 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It can be a bad week. I still expect 7400 to hit as expected last week.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 April 2016: -

On 08 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 180.27:  DII Net Sold – INR – 159.01

Based on moving average study I can say that we can take Friday’s close as crucial development. We got two closes below 100 DMA. It is more important to note that Nifty has closed even below 20 EMA. Primary study suggests that below 100 DMA it has good chance of hitting 7400. Can this selling convert in to brutal sell off?

Well, I see such thing to happen but I can get a better confirmation after seeing reaction at 7400. On medium term chart, 7400 will emerge as crucial levels.

For today’s session, longer it trades below 7570 higher will be alarm. What shall be the target below 7570? Well, one can expect a level of 7400 in very quick succession. I do not think that it can easily cross above 7570. Even if it does so then also cannot surpass much.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – I expect a down opening backed by SGX Nifty but I am not too optimistic as of now. We may see levels of 7670-7700 as stiff resistance but it is strongly advisable to avoid long on higher side. Wait for a sign of weakness to trade from higher levels. Note that below 7700, we may see bigger slide. Who knows it may be 100-150 points down today.

BANK NIFTY – My studies are simple and same as Friday. Below 15600, it has target at 15300. I am adding that weakness can see extreme very soon. Do not make any long attempt even if one two days of rise comes. Sooner or later, it can see 14000 levels. For trading we can see resistance at 15800 and a point can emerge for shorting for intraday at higher levels.