04 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 7800 should be still a possibility before expiry. It’s a hope !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 04 April 2016: -

On 01 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 214.01:  DII Net Sold – INR – 519.91

We have RBI’s next monetary policy review tomorrow. This will decide the next course of action for market. I have already said for a top either at RBI policy decision or in between earning season. So far, the best part of market is that Nifty manages to close above 7700. This makes chart bullish before policy decision. If this continues like this then we can expect some higher levels before policy.

I still feel that Nifty has a chance of testing 7800 somehow. Historically, market used to be silent before big events.

For today’s session, suppose if it stays below 7700 then avoid trading long ahead of many big events. I am still not bearish. I am just avoiding traded at top. Who knows I may get trap in long. Below 7680-7660 we may see weakness.  

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – I am keeping my analysis same as Nifty. I am avoiding index trading mode as it may not give clear direction although I am anticipating some rise as long as Nifty April future stays above 7740. Can give a test of 7800? Hope so!!!

BANK NIFTY – My studies remains same. It has again closed on logical resistance is at 16150 where it has closed on last Thursday. I am not saying short but I have no good reason to buy again. Let us see. We may see resistance at 16300 as it has shown yesterday. Do not short but equally do not buy. Wait for 05 April or some strong trading signal. It may be a buy above 16300 !!!