01 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Another short term top will come either on POLICY day or sometime in result season.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 01 April 2016: -

On 31 March 2015: FII Net Bought – INR 4056.62:  DII Net Sold – INR – 2890.57

We got a very dull expiry near 3 month’s high point on Nifty. Based on charting nothing much has change but we are moving very close to many crucial events. We have RBI’s next monetary policy review next week. After policy, earning will hit on market. So we have many news flows to come which will govern the market mood. We will get monsoon prediction also for this year which is expected to be above normal after many years. Another medium term TOP will come either on Policy day or sometime in result season.

Nifty has closed above 7700 but 7800 remains untested so far. As long as it is above 7700 traders may bet for 7800 but I am not very keen at this levels if we see silent trading. If rise has to come then it has to be violent.

For today’s session, suppose if it stays below 7700 then avoid trading long ahead of many big events. I am still not bearish. I am just avoiding traded at top. Who knows I may get trap in long. Below 7680 we may see weakness.  

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – I am keeping my analysis same as Nifty. I am avoiding index trading mode. I may not prefer to trade long unless I get some strong reasons to buy. Nifty April future may so volatility in premium value. It is likely to readjust. If nifty spot stays below 7700 then one must avoid any long of long attempt.

BANK NIFTY – It has again closed on logical resistance is at 16150 where it has closed day before yesterday. I am not saying short but I have no good reason to buy again. Let us see. We may see resistance at 16300 as it has shown yesterday. Do not short but equally do not buy. Wait for 05 April or some strong trading signal.