31 March 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Can we expect expiry to end at 7800 +? I see a possibility if it can stay above 7750.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 31 March 2016: -

On 30 March 2015: FII Net Bought – INR 1442.47:  DII Net Sold – INR – 396.90

It was a great rally yesterday lead by banking index. Eventually, Nifty closed near to meaningful resistance of 7750. We have derivative expiry today. We can see tremendous volatility today. Logical charting conclusion is a buy above 7750. If it can spend time above 7750 then we can see levels of 7850 to 7900. This target of 7900 levels may take some time to hit but it is definitely a possibility once it closes above 7750.  

I still keep my words of caution. Take a note that 7650-7670 will act as zone of resistance. Only if it can surpass above 7670 then only I can opt to buy for retest of 7740. Failure @ 7670 will be a sell on rise again. As we are near to expiry so I will take real time call only.

For today’s session, I am expecting a flat start. Today is derivative expiry and I may not prefer to be very active as I least prefer to trade expiry day. If I have to pick a trade then I will prefer to pick a long if it can spend time above 7750 levels.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – I am not very keen to trade but I feel that it can move advance. I am expecting expiry to come near to 7900 but that’s my hope on certain conditions. A bullish breakout can give such levels. Technical support is at 7750. Below 7750 I will not remain bullish.  

BANK NIFTY – A logical resistance is at 16150 where it has closed yesterday. I am not saying short. It can give a conditional buy. If it can spend time above 16150-16200 levels then it can see further 2% gains. I am expecting a level of 16500-16600 levels. It is true that this rise came after Mr. Mallya’s proposal of paying Rs 4000 crs to bank. We are near to next credit policy and today it derivative expiry day. Be careful.