22 March 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I anticipate a top with Rate cut in next monetary policy. 7800 is a possibility before event.


You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 March 2016: -
On 21 March 2015: FII Net Bought – INR 1396.33:  DII Net Sold – INR – 618.77
Has market discounted a 50 basic point rate cut in next monetary policy review? Well, no one knows the answer exactly. I can anticipate one view – A top with rate cut. Now, next question is what can be a possible Nifty value at top? This is tough but traders always need to hunt for this kind of value.
My anticipation is that no top can go higher than 7800 as of now. Remember we have a very short week. This makes me feel that market will either go range bound of may see some selling from higher in zigzag manner.
I have anticipated for a possibility of 7700+ once it stays above 7630 and we got that desired move.
For today’s trading session, Market may open flat but we will see massive resistance emerging at higher end. Interesting is that – Is it crossing 100 DMA or will it top at 100 DMA.
A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.
Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.
It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.
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Strategy for Nifty March future – We may expect opening around 7700 only. It will face technical resistance at 7740. If it can surpass 7740 then one can expect 7800 levels on higher side. During trading hours we may get signal – either we can buy above 100 DMA or we can short below 100 DMA. Do not opt easy contra deals as it may be misleading.

S&P 500 (USA) – I am keeping my study same. A up as long as 2030 holds. It is good to see S&P moving above 2045 with ease. Technical charts are suggesting that a move towards 2100 may come. A trading correction may hit but all such may turn to be opportunity to buy. I must say that 2030 is a level below which traders should avoid long for caution. Next quarterly earnings will be a decider for rest of the year. I must say that I still intact on my long term direction which is down and this rise is one strong bounce for exit.   
I’m Praveen Kumar, a seasoned Technical Analyst and stock market trader with over 25 years of experience in the Indian equity and derivatives markets. My passion for numbers and patterns led me to a dual career as a Mathematics Teacher and market technician. I specialize in Technical Analysis, with deep expertise in Elliott Wave Theory, derivatives strategies, and market forecasting. Over the years, my analysis and market views have been featured on NDTV Profit as a financial guest, along with published articles on reputed financial web portals, sharing insights on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and stock market trends. As a trader and analyst, I focus on interpreting price action, chart patterns, wave counts, and technical indicators to deliver precise market levels and actionable trade ideas. My approach blends classical charting with modern analysis tools to help traders navigate market volatility. Through VieCapital, I aim to share daily market analysis, trading strategies, and educatio…
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