22 March 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I anticipate a top with Rate cut in next monetary policy. 7800 is a possibility before event.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 22 March 2016: -
On 21 March 2015: FII Net Bought – INR 1396.33: DII Net Sold – INR – 618.77
Has market discounted a 50 basic point rate cut in next monetary
policy review? Well, no one knows the answer exactly. I can anticipate one view
– A top with rate cut. Now, next question is what can be a possible Nifty value
at top? This is tough but traders always need to hunt for this kind of value.
My anticipation is that no top can go higher than 7800 as of now. Remember
we have a very short week. This makes me feel that market will either go range
bound of may see some selling from higher in zigzag manner.
I have anticipated for a possibility of 7700+ once it stays above 7630
and we got that desired move.
For today’s trading session, Market may open flat but we will see
massive resistance emerging at higher end. Interesting is that – Is it crossing
100 DMA or will it top at 100 DMA.
A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say
that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves
to be part of everyday article.
Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall
is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is
showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but
this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.
It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S
pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty
is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may
ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100
levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.
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Strategy for Nifty March future
– We may expect opening around 7700 only. It will face technical resistance at
7740. If it can surpass 7740 then one can expect 7800 levels on higher side.
During trading hours we may get signal – either we can buy above 100 DMA or we
can short below 100 DMA. Do not opt easy contra deals as it may be misleading.
S&P 500 (USA) – I am
keeping my study same. A up as long as 2030 holds. It is good to see S&P
moving above 2045 with ease. Technical charts are suggesting that a move towards
2100 may come. A trading correction may hit but all such may turn to be
opportunity to buy. I must say that 2030 is a level below which traders should
avoid long for caution. Next quarterly earnings will be a decider for rest of
the year. I must say that I still intact on my long term direction which is
down and this rise is one strong bounce for exit.
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