01 March 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is only the possibility of Rate cut which saves market. If does not come then 6850 will repeat.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 01 March 2016: -

On 26 February 2015: FII Net Sold – INR 695.37:  DII Net Bought – INR – 784.14

Well, the media is presenting this is not “a budget” this is “the budget”. This is not making sense. I do not see anything impressive. It may not be productive for stock market. Multiple taxations remains a concern but lot more we were looking for a road map for improving economy. Take a strong note that no one is caring about falling export. They just want to present positive to hide prime concern. Refuelling PSU banks? Again? Is this a way to spend tax payer’s money? I always have been the strong critic of this idea.

Another strong point is – imposing TAX on PF money. Just think – government has not spent the money collected by Education cess. This amount is somewhere near to 1.40 lakhs. In short, I say that this budget is not going to save market. It has saved a disaster which count has happened on bad budget. Give only that much value. Only good thing is that it is not as bad as it could have happened. If crude price would not have fallen so much then you cannot even imagine the situation but that day has to come sooner or later. Whoever is giving IDEA to this government is again like the one UPA has. Remember Mr. Montek Singh Ahluwali.

For today’s trading session, I am expecting a flat to positive start. If you think that a good budget has saved market then I must inform you that market has reacted on the possibility of bank rate cut. Nothing else. If the desired rate cut does not come sooner then market will surely react to hit or break 6850 again. I will look for another resistance at 7100. If it can cross and sustain only I can think to be buyer.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty March future – SGX Nifty is suggesting that opening can go around 7060. Market is expecting rate cut. Will bank rate come? This is where market is betting. Let us see if it comes or RBI governor deny again. Technical support is at 7000 and resistance is at 7130. Unless it cross above 7130, I see less reason to buy.  

S&P 500 (USA) – This is definitely a point of concern. An intraday top at 1959 and then closing came near 1930. Technical charts are suggesting for a fresh possibility of fall if this breaks 1930. I have already said yesterday that market is showing a lot of hesitation in staying above 1945. It looks like market is missing booster for 2000.